Some Random Thoughts..
Just a place to put some random thoughts..

Puzzle:
You are a prisoner in a foreign land. your fate will be determined by a little game. there are two jars, one with 50 white marbles, and one with 50 black marbles. at this point, you are allowed to redistribute the marbles however you wish (e.g. swap a black marble with a white marble, etc.): the only requirement is that after you are done with the redistribution, every marble must be in one of the two jars. afterwards, both jars will be shaken up, and you will be blindfolded and presented with one of the jars at random. then you pick one marble out of the jar given to you. if the marble you pull out is white, you live; if black, you die. how should you redistribute the marbles to maximize the probability that you live; what is this maximum probability (roughly)?

Answer:
Even though the puzzle mentions things like probability, I used common sense (anways probability is nothing but common sense). If I was that prisoner, I would put 49 white and 50 black marbles in one jar and 1 white marble in the other jar. That way If i get the first jar, chances of my survival are almost 50% (because 49 out of 99 marbles are white) and if i get the second jar the chances are 100%. Combining these two the probability is roughly 75%. Not bad atall.
Today's Puzzle (MARBLE JARS I)
Puzzle:
You are a prisoner in a foreign land. your fate will be determined by a little game. there are two jars, one with 50 white marbles, and one with 50 black marbles. at this point, you are allowed to redistribute the marbles however you wish (e.g. swap a black marble with a white marble, etc.): the only requirement is that after you are done with the redistribution, every marble must be in one of the two jars. afterwards, both jars will be shaken up, and you will be blindfolded and presented with one of the jars at random. then you pick one marble out of the jar given to you. if the marble you pull out is white, you live; if black, you die. how should you redistribute the marbles to maximize the probability that you live; what is this maximum probability (roughly)?

Answer:
Even though the puzzle mentions things like probability, I used common sense (anways probability is nothing but common sense). If I was that prisoner, I would put 49 white and 50 black marbles in one jar and 1 white marble in the other jar. That way If i get the first jar, chances of my survival are almost 50% (because 49 out of 99 marbles are white) and if i get the second jar the chances are 100%. Combining these two the probability is roughly 75%. Not bad atall.

posted by rumplestiltskin @ 4:30 pm 0 comments

0 Comments:


Post a Comment